Horse Pick of the Day: Hollywood Park – Race 5
Race-day: 11/28/2009
Race-time: 5:32 pm EST
Before Ventura and Diamondrella take to the turf track for the Grade I Matriarch on Saturday at Hollywood Park, two year olds go 1 mile on the turf in the Grade III Generous Stakes.
The Generous Stakes figures as a super competitive race where finding an overlay shouldn’t be an issues. Finding the right overlay, the overlay that could win, is the challenge.
Let’s take a look at Race 5 and Hollywood Park on Saturday.
Hollywood Park – Race 5
Grade III Generous Stakes
$100,000
For Two Year Olds
1 mile on turf
Who’s Up – - 7/2 fair online betting odds
Bridgetown is going to be a huge favorite in this race but that fella has no choice but to go for the lead breaking from the 1 hole while Who’s Up, who broke his maiden at a mile on the turf, figures to track Bridgetown before going after him at the top of the stretch. Who’s Up has been ridden by the fantastic Victor Espinoza in all three of his lifetime races, and figures to get the best trip out of all of the horses in this race.
Marcello – - 5/1 fair online betting odds
The Bob Baffert trained son of Johannesburg won an allowance race in his last race and is going first time on the turf. Usually, those wouldn’t be good signs that he deserves a wager, but the fact that he was bought for $200,000, is bred to enjoy the lawn, and showed the type of turn of foot that would make him very, very tough in this in that allowance victory.
Bridgetown – - 3/1 fair online betting odds
This two year old sired by Speightstown switches jockeys to Garrett Gomez after finishing 2nd by ¾ of a length in the BC Juvenile Turf in his last. He took the lead in that and actually looked to be the winner before getting run down by the terrific Pounced. Bridgetown has the ability to lead again in this race, but, again, faces a very tough opponent in Who’s Up. Bridgetown should go off the chalk, though, and is worth a wager at 3 to 1 or higher, although I doubt he goes off at those odds.
Wagering Strategy
Who’s Up is a very good horse and deserves a bet to win and place. I will also play an exacta and trifecta box with Bridgetown, Marcello and Who’s Up.

The best Pick 3 wager of the day starts in Hollywood’s Race 6 where maiden claimers will hit the track.
We’ll try to get a long shot in Race 6 at Hollywood Park because Ventura and Diamondrella run in the third leg of Saturday’s Pick 3 of the day.
Let’s take a look.
** All numbers are post positions
Race 6 – $25,000 Maiden Claimer (6:04 EST)
6 ½ furlongs on cushion track
Horses Used: 1-Afleet Magic, 2-Youthful Ambition, 4-Magic Dust, 6-Nanni The Teaser, 10-Broadway Promise
Analysis: Afleet Magic takes a drop in class and that may be all he needs. Plus, he’s a gelding now. Youthful Ambition changes barns to Vladimir Cerin and drops way down in class from the maiden special ranks. Magic Dust is a first time starter with some really nice works. Nanni The Teaser will be overlooked in the betting has improving numbers and trainer Eoin Harty is a master with these types of horses. Broadway Promise figures to go off as the chalk, has speed, and gets speed jock Martin Garcia.
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Race 6 – $38,000 n$y Allowance
6 furlongs on turf
Horses Used: 1-Woman Warrior, 2-Tamar, 3-Dotsy Jean, 5-Maroma, 7-Pink Diamond
Analysis: In this amazingly competitive race, decisions have to be made. One of them is to not use likely chalk Miss Silver Brook and instead throw in a few potential long shots. Woman Warrior has speed, gets the rail, and should get a terrific trip with Alex Solis on her back. Tamar was horrible in her last but she goes first time turf for trainer Mike Mitchell, is out of terrific sire Indian Charlie, and has a ton of speed. Dotsy Jean has won two races at this distance and on this turf course. She could close for the victory. Maroma is trained by Cristophe Clement and gets Rafael Bejarano to take the call. Pink Diamond is coming off of a maiden victory off of the turf. Usually, she’d be a throw-out but her number in her maiden win was absolutely fantastic and she is bred to be a champion.
Race 7 – Grade I Matriarch
1 mile on turf
Horses Used: 3-Diamondrella
Analysis: Yes, it’s true that Ventura is in this race and it would be a fantastic story if she were to win considering her former trainer, the venerable Bobby Frankel, passed away a couple of week’s ago, but Diamondrella is just too good at this distance and on this turf. Diamondrella has beaten Forever Together, the 2008 BC Filly and Mare Turf Champion, twice. She also had no chance in the BC Turf Sprint and probably would have given Goldikova a run for her money in the BC Mile. Diamondrella is 8-2-1 on the turf out of 16 lifetime races and is 2 for 2 at this distance, both on the turf. She’s out of Rock Of Gibraltar. So, her class is pretty much unquestioned. She beats Ventura in that one’s swan song on Saturday.$1 Pick 3 = 5 x 5 x 1 = 25 combinations
Total Cost = $25

Race-day: 11/28/2009

First-race: 2:14 pm EST
Aqueduct’s fall meet provides their most important day of racing on Saturday when the Grade I Cigar Mile, which will showcase Vineyard Haven and Kodiak Kowboy.
The Grade I Cigar Mile is the final leg in a four race Grand Slam Pick 4 that starts in Race 6 and ends in Race 9. Below is the Pick 4 ticket that I will most likely be playing, provided there are no scratches, this Saturday in the BetUS online racebook.
Race 6: Grade II Demoiselle Stakes
1 1/8 miles on dirt
Horses Used: 1/1A-In The Rough and Profiteroles, 4-Tizahit, 5-Protesting
Analysis: Both In The Rough and Profiteroles are next out maiden winners, but both have won going two turns already. Profiteroles figures to be super tough in this after the speed rating she garnered in her maiden victory. Tizahit failed in the Grade III Tempted Stakes but should find the competition much easier in this and Protesting was sired by A.P. Indy and comes out of the Shug McGaughey barn. Shug has trained some seriously good fillies in his time and figures to possibly have another one here.
Race 7: Grade II Remsen Stakes
1 1/8 miles on dirt
Horses Used: 5-Homeboy Kris, 6-Citrus Kid
Analysis: Buddy’s Saint figures to go off a super chalky in this but Homeboy Kris was awesome in his first race for trainer Richard Dutrow, knows how to rate, and figures to be even better in this. Citrus Kid goes to the barn of John Terranova who is 27% first time after the claim. He too should lie right behind Buddy’s Saint before taking him on at the top of the stretch.
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Race 8: Grade I Gazelle Stakes
1 1/8 miles on dirt
Horses Used: 2-Flashing, 3-Milwaukee Appeal, 4-Unrivaled Belle, 5-Bon Jovi Girl
Analysis: Flashing is 2 for 2 at Aqueduct and should be the favorite even though Stardom Bound is in this race. She should be very tough against this group. Milwaukee Appeal has finished 2nd in four straight races including the Grade I Alabama. Unrivaled Belle is 3 and 1 out of 4 straight races. Bon Jovi Girl finished second in a Grade I two races back before failing in a minor stakes race in her last. She can bounce back in this.
Race 9: Grade I Cigar Mile
1 mile on dirt
Horses Used: 1/1A-Pyro and Vineyard Haven, 4-Bribon
Analysis: Pyro is the closer and Vineyard Haven is the speed. Haven could steal this on the front end as he has faced much stronger early pressure in the past and has come out on top. Bribon failed in the Woodbine Mile, but is much better than he showed that day and figures to get the jump on the likely chalk in this, Kodiak Kowboy. Both are stone cold closers.
$1 Pick 4 = 3×2x4×2 = 48 combinations
Total Cost = $48

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Padding Your Bankroll: Thursday November 26
Turkey Day is here, and we have a lot to be thankful for, particularly the early post times, giving us plenty of time for wagering before we have to sit down for dinner.
Aqueduct has an 11:25 ET post time this morning, and the nine race card concludes at 3:10 ET
The highlight of today’s card is the $100,000 Fall Highweight Handicap (G3), which…

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The Cigar Mile, named for the top money-winning thoroughbred for a decade, has attracted several contenders that raced at the distance only once.
Well, Cigar ran a mile on the dirt only twice in his 33-race career, both times at Aqueduct where the Grade 1 has been held except for 1993 since debuting in ’88 as the NYRA Mile. He won by seven lengths on Nov. 26, 1994, a month after taking an…

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Hialeah Park, 84 years after its debut in the Roaring ’20s, is back from the dead and on track to hold the first of two meetings 48 hours after Thanksgiving.
It has been eight years since the last thoroughbred race was staged at the historic South Florida landmark.

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Horse Pick of the Day:  Woodbine – Race 8
Race-day:  11/11/2009
Race-time:  10:13 pm EST
Racing in Canada continue on Wednesday night when horses take the Woodbine racetrack.
There is a stakes race on the card, but for betting purposes, the last race, an $8,000 claimer, figures to offer serious value on some good horses.  It’s a wide open affair that should…

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Race-times:  Race 6 at 6:04 pm EST, Race 7 at 6:35 pm EST, and Race 8 at 7:05 pm EST
Hollywood Park, because of the usually high amount of dollars put into their Pick 3 pools, provides better Pick 3 payouts than most other racetracks.
Such a case should occur again this Saturday where rolling Pick 3’s could be the horse racing bets of the day.
Let’s take a look at the best…

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As the year winds down, the graded stakes are becoming few and far between, but we have a couple of interesting stakes today, taking us to Aqueduct and Churchill Downs.
At the Big A, a field of six line up for the $100,000 Discovery Handicap (G3), a nine furlong race on the main track.
On paper, it looks like a match race between Ohio and Pennsylvania Derby winner Gone Astray and Empire Classic winner Haynesfield.
We’ll lean toward the latter, who figures to be the better price of the duo, and the three year old still appears to have plenty of upside potential.
The $100,000 Cardinal Handicap (G3) is the better horse betting race of the two, with a group of nine fillies and mares going nine furlongs on the turf course.
There are no toss outs in the field, which should lead to decent payoffs.
My top pick Leamington is looking to rebound off a fifth place finish in the Flower Bowl (G1) at Belmont Park where she caught soft ground and I am hoping we see all of her 4/1.
She will be ridden by Calvin Borel, who is being honored on Saturday with a bobblehead giveaway.
First stop the Big A:
Aqueduct Race 8 Discovery Handicap (G3) Post time 3:44 ET
#4 Haynesfield 5/2
#5 Gone Astray 1/1
#1 Redding Colliery 12/1
#3 Birdrun 5/1
#4 Haynesfield is coming off a win in the New York bred Empire Classic, which was against older foes. The runner up in the race was Ruffino, who came back to win a New York Stallion series race in his next outing on Nov. 15. This colt looked like he might be headed down the Triple Crown Trail early this year after winning the Count Fleet and Whirlaway, but the wheels came off in the Gotham (G3) where he finished a distant eighth and he headed to the bench. He came back with a game effort in the Sir Keys two back, and showed he could handle nine furlongs and a wet track last out. The colt is back with straight three year olds here while trying graded stakes company. He looks primed for a good effort here in his third start of his current form cycle.
#5 Gone Astray comes into this race sporting three consecutive triple digit Beyer Speed Figures and back to back wins in Grade 2 company, making him the likely heavy favorite. While he earned solid numbers in his last two starts, he really did not beat much in either the Ohio Derby or the Pennsylvania Derby. He is giving our top pick five pounds and he likely is going to be around 3/5 in the betting, which sure looks light to me.
Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 9/5 or better.
EX: 4,5 / 1,4,5
TRI: no play
Churchill Downs Race 9 Cardinal Handicap (G3) Post time 4:37 ET
#8 Leamington 4/1
#2 Tizfiz 8/1
#9 Lemon Chiffon 6/1
#3 Acoma 5/2
#8 Leamington may be primed to pick up her first graded stake here for the Graham Motion barn. Her last start was a fifth place finish in the Flower Bowl (G1) at Belmont Park where she set the early fractions over soft turf and weakened in the stretch to finish fifth. That was a solid field she faced, the winner Pure Clan coming back to finish second in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1) and the runner up Criticism came back to win the Long Island Handicap (G3) in her next outing on Nov. 1 at Aqueduct. She won a restricted stake two back at Saratoga and that race turned out be tougher than it looked. The runner up Belle Allure and eighth place finisher Indescribable both came back to win graded stakes in their next starts. The cut back in distance and firmer ground should suit this filly.
#2 Tizfiz was in tough in her last two starts at Keeneland, both over polytrack. Her last two turf starts were solid, stakes wins at Remington Park and Mountaineer Park. She has won 6 of 12 on the turf in her career including a Grade 2 at Santa Anita back in January. I’m surprised the daughter of Tiznow did not seem to care for the fake stuff in her last two starts and she will appreciate the return to the grass and the earlier company here. The mare is in good hands with the John Good barn and her 8/1 morning line odds make her worth a good look in this spot.
Wagering
WIN: #8 to win at 3/1 or better.
EX: 2,8 / 2,3,8,9
TRI: 2,8 / 2,3,8,9 / 2,3,7,8,9
Good luck padding your bankroll today!

Race-time: Cardinal Handicap at 4:37 pm EST and Hollywood Prevue at 7:05 pm EST
Race-day: 11/21/2009
Two super competitive races highlight Saturday’s thoroughbred racing action.
At Churchill Downs, fillies and mares take the turf course for the Grade III Cardinal Handicap. At Hollywood Park, 2 year old colts hit the cushion track for the Grade III Hollywood Prevue Stakes.
Let’s take a look at both stakes races
Churchill Downs – Race 9
Grade III Cardinal Handicap
$100,000
Fillies and Mares, Three Years Old and Upward
1 1/8 miles on turf
Leamington figures to get the perfect 1 length trip behind front runner Zaskar before taking over in the lane. She will have to hold off some terrific closers, but the Churchill Downs specialist who has a victory and second out of two races figures to do just that. Let’s peg her for the top spot.
For second, You Go West Girl could add a ton of value in the exotics. She gets the rail, where she can save ground, and is 2-3 out of 7 races at this distance. She’s also won her last two and trainer Thomas Proctor is winning at 43% at this meet. My Baby Baby always figures right there and should do so again because she’ll get first run on the closers from the garden spot position. She could be tough in this.

1. Leamington
2. You Go West Girl
3. My Baby Baby
Hollywood Park – Race 8
Grade III Hollywood Prevue Stakes
$100,000
For Two Year Olds
7 furlongs on cushion track
Tiznow hasn’t sired a Kentucky Derby winner yet, but trainer Eoin Harty hopes that will change with his charge, American Lion. The son of Tiznow has been sensational in his two lifetime races including a 7 furlong victory over the Polytrack at Keeneland to break his maiden. With Storm Cat on his bottom side, American Lion is bred to be a champion. Macias is the second of Bob Baffert’s duo in this race, but he might be the better one.
He’s improved in each of his three lifetime races and can either stalk or lead. The $400,00 buy, Indian Firewater, gets Garrett Gomez is trained by Bob Baffert and figures to be the favorite in this race. He too could be a champion one day, but his style suggests that there’s some learning to do before beating American Lion and Macias.

1. American Lion
2. Macias
3. Indian Firewater

With the play of the day being just a $7,500 restricted claiming race, it looks like we are slumming it today, but if Trusted Heart gets home at close to his 8/1 morning line odds, the winnings will spend just as well as if we had the winner in a $1 million race.
The colt is making his second start for the crafty Gary Guillo barn, which has outstanding numbers when adding blinkers to his horses.
Our Late Pick 3 play includes three live longshots in the three race sequence, and we have a good shot of turning our $24 investment into a nice windfall.
The middle leg of the sequence is the $65,000 Love Is Eternal Stakes, which drew a wide open field of ten fillies and mares who will go one mile on the main track.

Today’s Play of the Day from Aqueduct:

AQU Race 5 Clm $7,500B (2:20 ET)
#6 Trusting Heart 8/1
#4 The Yes Man 5/2
#9 Mr. Serious 12/1
#1 One Lucky Date 9/5
Analysis: #6 Trusting Heart gets the nod in a wide open weak cheap claimer. The colt was never a threat last out against $10K non winners of three in a dull effort, which was his first go for the Guillo barn. This guy owns back numbers that he earned back in the spring that would be good enough to win here and note the addition of blinkers here for a barn that is 39% winners (with a +ROI) with adding the hood. He drops a notch in price and comes back quickly with just a week off. It is a soft spot and the 8/1 ML looks fair enough.
#4 The Yes Man is returning off a seven week break, last out a sharp winner versus $5K non winners of three at Monmouth Park in the slop. Only the Suffolk shipper earned a higher last out speed fig and at least this guy comes in here with some decent form, something we can’t say about most of this group.

Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 9/2 or better.
EX: 4,6 / 1,4,6,9
TRI: 4,6 / 1,4,6,9 / 1,4,5,6,9

Today’s Pick 3 Play from Aqueduct:

Starting in Race 7: $1: 10,11 / 1,3,8 / 4,5,7,10 = $24

AQU Race 7 Alw $50,000s (3:16 ET)
#11 Baton Rouge, #10 Unaccountable
#11 Baton Rouge was dismissed at 34/1 last out against Alw-1 foes, pressing the early pace from the inside and weakening to finish fifth. That was a decent field, the third place finisher Extra Zip beating state bred Alw-2 optional claimers in his next start while fourth place finisher Good Prospect was fourth in a NY Stallion series stake last week. He is back in with starter allowance types and three back this guy was headed for home with a clear lead at the condition before weakening to finish third. The barn has been sending out live runners at the meet and this colt figures to be a decent price in this spot.
#10 Unaccountable returns off nearly a two month break after a nose win last out against $35K non winners of three at Belmont Park, his third win in his last four starts. He has run well fresh for the Brown barn that is on fire at the meet, picking up another win yesterday, and is 28% winners with horses coming back off a 31-60 day break.

AQU Race 8 Love Is Eternal S. (3:44 ET)
#1 My Dinah / #1a Them There Eyes, #8 Rightly So, #3 Yet Again
#1 My Dinah gets the call here and is by far the stronger part of the entry here. The filly stretches back out to a route here after catching a sloppy surface last out in a runner up finish behind the gate to wire winner #8 Rightly So. The filly has done her best working at today’s distance (8-5-1-1) and the filly she chased last out may not have things as easy on the front in this spot. She has won 3 of 5 over the Big A main track including a restricted stake back in April. She should be rolling late.
#8 Rightly So has won four in a row since running second in her debut, last out winning her stakes debut by taking the Iroquois going seven panels in the slop. She makes her third start off the bench for the red hot Tony D. barn and has enough pedigree to handle the extra distance. She did show two back she does not need the lead to win. She does pick up six pounds for her first go at a mile and the price is going to be on the light side.
AQU Race 9 Md $25,000 (4:12 ET)
#7 Watch Smartly, #10 Chick in Slacks, #5 Dreary Day, #4 Music to Me
#7 Watch Smartly drew a tough post last out when coming back off a eight month layoff. She as not a threat in a sixth place finish and figures to be fitter second off the bench. She has a decent pedigree, by Smart Strike out of the stakes winner Watch Rachel ($419K) an eight time turf winner. She has dropped three winners, including one turf winner. Rosie picks up the call and this filly was in versus tougher in Florida in her previous starts.
#10 Chick in Slacks made a good late rally to finish in the runner up spot last out when dropping in for a $25K tag. She is on the light side pedigree wise for the grass but she did cross the wire first for a $35K tag only to get DQ’d back in June. She makes her third start of her current form cycle but does draw an outside post and the price is on the light side.

Price Plays From Aqueduct:
These are price plays to watch today. A small win-place wager is in order or if your pockets are deep enough, use these runners in your trifecta and Pick 3 and Pick 4 wagers. One or two of these could be the difference between a regular day at the track and hitting the IRS window with a signer.
R2: #8 King’s Fleet 12/1
R3: #4 Hunting 10/1
R4: #8 Farawaycat 10/1
R5: #6 Trusting Heart 8/1
R5: #9 Mr. Serious 12/1
R6: #7 Principesa Heather 10/1
R7: #11 Baton Rouge 12/1
R8: #3 Yet Again 8/1
R8: #4 Lovely Daniella 8/1
R9: #4 Music to Me 20/1
Good luck padding your bankroll today!

In 2008, Zenyatta toppled the girls in the Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic. On Saturday, she trounced the boys in the $5M Classic at Santa Anita.
Breeders’ Cup Day 2 Results and Payouts
The first day of the Breeders’ Cup World Championships is over.

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Padding Your Bankroll: Saturday November 7
Breeders’ Cup 2009 Saturday is here, eight championship races with $17 million in purses up for grabs.
The key as a horseplayer to having a good day may lie with the pair of two year olds races.
Both the Juvenile and Juvenile Turf have large fields and are wide open races.
The $1 million Juvenile Turf starts off the day with a full field of…

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Breeders’ Cup 2009 Turf Preview: Conduit Looks For Two Straight Victories
Race-day: 11/7/2009
Race-time: 5:57 pm EST
The terrific Conduit will enter the gate for the 2009 Breeders’ Cup Turf looking for his second Grade I victory in his last three races as well as his second straight Turf victory.
Conduit is an exceptionally good horse. He’s won three Grade I races in his last 6 starts and finished 4 the to Sea The Stars in the Prix De L’Arc De Triomphe, but as good as Conduit is, there are about two to three horses that figures to give him a run for his money this Saturday.
Let’s take a look at the 2009 Breeders’ Cup Turf
Breeders’ Cup Turf
** Current odds listed in the BetUS online racebook
Santa Anita Park
Nov. 7 th 5:57 pm EST
Spanish Moon – - +350 current odds
Conduit’s trainer, Michael Stoute, also saddles this exceptional turfer out of the Sadler’s Wells sired El Prado. Spanish Moon runs for Juddmonte Farms and has a record that would make any horse racing fan’s head spin. Out of 12 lifetime races, Spanish Moon is 6-2-1 including victories in the Grade II Qatar Prix Foy and the Grade I Grand Prix De Saint Cloud. Spanish Moon’s form is unbelievable having finished either 1 st or 2 nd in his last 6 races against terrific company. He can also lead or stalk which will definitely help him in this small field.
Presious Passion – - +700 current odds
This is a small field and in a small field speed becomes paramount. There’s none faster than Presious Passion who should get the lead in the Turf even if he breaks backwards. The key for success will depend on how far ahead jockey Elvis Trujillo puts the son of Royal Anthem in this race. Trujillo should try to get at least a 15 to 20 length lead because Conduit, Spanish Moon and Dar Re Mi are all much classier and no doubt will out run Presious Passion in the second half of this race. So, the more ground those stars have to make up on Passion, the better his chances of springing the upset. Don’t look past this guy, is my advice.
Dar Re Mi – - +300 current odds
She’s the lone filly in the field, but that shouldn’t bother horseplayers because trainer Jon Gosden is an expert with these turf monsters. Dar Re Mi is a turf monster. She won three Grade I races in a row before finishing 5 th to Sea The Stars in the Prix De L’Arc De Triomphe. That’s a pretty good record and if American horseplayers believe that mares and fillies can’t beat the boys, then they are sorely misguided. Dar Re Mi has a record of 5-4-3 out of 14 races and by all account will be going into the Turf in fine form. She deserves consideration in this.
Conduit – - +150 current odds
Conduit should win the 2009 Breeders’ Cup Turf. He is the best horse in the field and has run with the best in Europe. He’s a multiple Grade I winner and loves the Santa Anita Turf Course. The only reason not to bet Conduit to win is that his competition in Spanish Moon, Dar Re Mi, and Presious Passion as a potential lone front-runner, makes him an underlay at +150. If horseplayers are willing to take short odds, however, then he might be worth the play because he’s simply the best horse in the Turf.
On Race Day
Presious Passion deserves a wager to win because he’s lone speed, but he’s not a good bet if he dips below 6 to 1. Spanish Moon is the key horse in all exactas and trifectas.
When it comes to the Pick 3’s and Pick 4’s, I can’t separate any four of these horses and will have to use all of them.

Breeders’ Cup 2009 – Pick 3 Wager Starts with Midshipman and Ends with the BC Classic
Being judicious about where you put your Breeders’ Cup 2009 money is the way to ensure success.
Okay, maybe it’s not he way to ensure success, there is no real way when wagering on horses, but it is a way to not get totally beat up in the BetUS online racebook. So, instead of betting a horse to win in every race, playing trifectas and exacta, playing all of the Pick 4’s, it makes sense to simply pick the best Pick 3 wager on the card and bet that.
Let’s take a look at my best Pick 3 wager on Breeders’ Cup Day.
Pick 3 Wager
Race 7: Breeders’ Cup 2009 Dirt Mile
Horses used: #1 Mastercraftsman, #3 Midshipman
Analysis: He certainly looks like lone speed in this race as Bullsbay will be about 3 to 4 lengths behind him and Mastercraftsman might be in downtown L.A.
I’m exaggerating, of course, but getting a Godolphin runner at roughly 4 to 1 in the Breeder’s Cup 2009 odds or higher with Garrett Gomez on his back on a surface that he excels out looks like a solid single in a Pick 3 to me. Midshipman won’t even be the favorite in this race even though everything points to him winning the race.
Mastercraftsman will be the favorite, but he’s a must use. There’s just no other way around it.
Race 8: BC Turf
Horses used: #2 Conduit, #6 Presious Passion, #7 Spanish Moon
Analysis: Conduit is trying to repeat and all systems appear go for him to do so. Presious Passion should be lone speed. Spanish Moon figures to be the closest to Presious Passion. So, Moon should get the jump on his competitors.
Race 9: Breeders’ Cup 2009 Classic
Horses used: #3 Summer Bird, #5 Twice Over, #6 Richard’s Kid, #10 Rip Van Winkle, #12 Quality Road
Analysis: Summer Bird, Rip Van Winkle and Quality Road are the three best horses in this race, but since we were judicious with our other two legs, not going crazy and putting in the world, why not spread a bit in the finale?
Twice Over has a decent shot because he’s been brilliant in his last two and is coming into this race looking fantastic. He could be this year’s Raven’s Pass. Richard’s Kid is the best quality closer in this race, yes, better than Zenyatta, and it will be his third race with trainer Bob Baffert.
$1 total cost = 2 x 3 x 5 = 30
= $30

Favorites generally win one-third of the time at American racetracks. During the current Oak Tree meeting, however, top choices scored 40 percent through Oct. 29.
The Breeders’ Cup, dating back to the inaugural event in 1984, has produced winning favorites 34 ½ percent in 196 races.
The biggest upset in BC history came in the ’93 Classic when European import Arcangues triumphed at a whopping 133-1.
Eight of 14 winners last year at Santa Anita returned double-digit payoffs. The highest return was compliments of Desert Code who paid $75 on the front end, producing a $29,663.30 superfecta.
In the BC Juvenile Fillies Turf, two horses that won at the 1 1/16 miles are capable of springing an upset: Smart Seattle, 8-1, and Lisa’s Kitten, 12-1.
In the Filly and Mare Sprint, Evita Argentina appears the best of three 20-1 shots with a chance off her 3 for 6 record on synthetic surfaces despite the presence of likely odds-on choice Ventura. A double-digit place payoff wouldn’t be bad either.
The 8-1 Bridgetown boasts the best speed figure at the mile in the Juvenile Turf winning a graded stakes race at Woodbine.
With all the front-running speed in the Sprint at six furlongs, Capt. Candyman Can at 15-1 could surprise in a wide-open race.
Pulsion, 20-1, finished second to likely favorite Looking At Lucky at 1 1/16 miles in a recent prep at Santa Anita for the Juvenile. He has steadily improved in four starts.
Karelian at 20-1 looks interesting in the Mile. Four of his seven victories have been at a mile on the grass and he is 7 of 15 in career turf outings. Whatsthescript, 15-1, broke from post 11 last year and closed big time from 11th to third behind defending champ Goldikova. He’s 2-0-2 of 5 at Oak Tree, 4-0-2 on the grass lifetime.
Neko Bay, 20-1, loves Santa Anita – he’s 4-2-0 for 6. Trainer John Sherriffs, who also sends out unbeaten Zenyatta against the boys in the Classic, is 30 percent winners in 99 graded stakes this year.
If you’re looking for upsets in the Classic, consider a couple of 12-1 shots that rally from off the pace. Gio Ponti is the likely Eclipse turf champ off four Grade 1 victories on grass, including two a 1 ¼ miles. Richard’s Kid is 1-1-1 in his last 3 on California synthetic courses. Trainer Bob Baffert is 26 percent winners from 231 entries in graded stakes races for ’08.

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Aidan O’Brien is no stranger to big races. Backed by the powerful Coolmore Stud operation out of the Republic of Ireland, O’Brien has won his share of big races. Coolmore Stud is the largest breeding operation of thoroughbred racehorses in the world. Through Coolmore, O’Brien obtains his horses and through Ballydoyle Stables, he runs his horses.
Therefore, to see O’Brien back in the United States with plenty of horses to make a run in the Breeders’ Cup is nothing new. This year, though, could be different because this year the man who saddled Henrythenavigator to a second place finish in the 2008 Breeders’ Cup Classic has, by his own admission, the best horse he has ever trained running in the 2009 Classic, Rip Van Winkle.
American racing fans must be forgiven if they only believe that Rip Van Winkle is a story by Washington Irving and not also a racehorse. After all, O’Brien’s charge was thumped by arguably one of the greatest racehorses of all time, Sea The Stars, thoroughly in 2009.
Sea The Stars finished ahead of Rip Van Winkle in the Grade I Two Thousand Guineas, the Grade I Epsom Derby, and the Grade I Coral Eclipse, but Sea The Stars, by all accounts, won’t enter the gate in the 2009 Breeders’ Cup Classic. What that means is that O’Brien’s horse could possibly be the favorite to win the Classic. Right now, Rip Van Winkle is a +200 co-favorite along with the super filly Zenyatta in the online racebook to take home the Classic trophy.
Favoritism makes sense as Rip Van Winkle has won his last two races, both grade ones, in sterling fashion. He took down the Grade I Sussex by 2 ½ lengths over the well-regarded Paco Boy and then he won the Grade I Queen Elizabeth Stakes over Zacinto and fellow Breeders’ Cup contender, Delegator. In both races Rip Van Winkle looked absolutely terrific, but there are flaws with those who believe that Rip Van Winkle is worth the low odds to win the Classic.
Aidan O’Brien is a master trainer, that won’t be an issue. Rip Van Winkle no doubt will be on his toes, ready to enter the gate, ready to run, able to get in perfect position and seemingly ready to take homer the winner’s purse of the mullah on Nov. 7 th. Bettors who put money O’Brien’s charge, however, should wait out the end of the race before walking to the window to cash their tickets.
The reason is simple; Henrythenavigator and Raven’s Pass were running against a much softer group of horses in the 2008 BC Classic. Curlin, the top American runner, hadn’t done a whole lot going into the race. It was also obvious that Curlin didn’t care for the Pro-Ride surface. Therefore, the top American, and the favorite in the race was racing over a surface he detested, on the downturn of his career. No wonder he finished 4 th.
Curlin, unfortunately for American racing fans, was the only horse capable of challenging Raven’s Pass and Henrythenavigator on class in the 2008 BC Classic. Tiago, Go Between, Colonel John, Smooth Air, Fairbanks, Student Council and Casino Drive were either horses that had proven to be no better than Grade III or Grade II status or hadn’t really proven themselves at either the 1 ¼ mile distance or against top notch competition.
That’s not the case with this year’s field. Rip Van Winkle may be a great horse, nobody is going to doubt that, but Zenyatta, who figures to run in the Classic, is a great horse as well. Summer Bird, the Belmont Stakes, Travers and Jockey Gold Cup winner is coming into the race as well as any horse could.
Then, there’s the turf star Gio Ponti who will bypass the Breeders’ Cup Turf for the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Gio Ponti isn’t nearly as well regarded as Rip Van Winkle, but he does have success over the Pro-Ride surface and has been as good of a racehorse in the United States as any outside of Rachel Alexandra in 2009.
Finally, there’s the other European, Twice Over, who is out of Observatory and whose grandfather is Distant View. Twice Over is himself a Grade I winner over the turf and comes out of the Juddmonte Farms racing outfit which, like Ballydoyle, has won numerous Grade I races throughout the world.
This is a very, very good field for the BC Classic. It’s better than many horseplayers might think. Taking such short odds on a horse that hasn’t even won a million bucks yet to beat the likes of Zenyatta, Summer Bird, Gio Ponti and Twice Over makes absolutely no sense.
Pass on betting Rip Van Winkle in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. The odds won’t justify a wager.

Trainer Steve Asmussen has confirmed that his Grade I Vosburgh winning star, Kodiak Kowboy, will run in the 2 million Breeders’ Cup Sprint on November 7th.
Asmussen was debating on whether to run Kodiak Kowboy in the Sprint or save him for a race later in November or December. Asmussen confirmed on Saturday, October 24th, that Kodiak Kowboy would try the Sprint. The debate had more to do with the fact that the 2009 Breeders’ Cup is being held at Santa Anita Park over the Pro-Ride surface then whether or not Kodiak Kowboy could handle the best thoroughbred speedsters in the world.
Kodiak Kowboy has only 1 victory out of 3 tries over an all weather surface and the victory was when he was a two year old at Woodbine. Woodbine has a Polytrack surface which is different than the Pro-Ride, but a good race over any synthetic surface is better than no races at all over the plastic. Asmussen did admit that the connections of Kodiak Kowboy were “definitely worried that the race is being run over the Pro-Ride”.
Asmussen is taking a shot with Kodiak Kowboy in the Sprint as it will be only the second time that the trainer has saddled the horse. Asmussen received Kodiak Kowboy from the Larry Jones’ barn shortly before the Vosburgh. The decision to run Kodiak Kowboy in the Sprint is similar to Asmussen’s decision to run Rachel Alexandra in the Preakness Stakes shortly after acquiring the filly for owner Jess Jackson.
The gamble paid off when Rachel Alexandra won the Preakness Stakes, but will it pay off in the case of Kodiak Kowboy?
It just might. There will be few horses as classy in the Sprint as the son of Posse who possesses the ability to either run close to the pace or close from behind. Kodiak Kowboy has a record of 10-4-3 out of 22 lifetime races. He has won two Grade I races, the Carter Handicap and the Vosburgh, and finished second in another Grade I race, the Forego. He has beaten some very good horses such as Fabulous Strike, Munnings and Ready’s Echo. He’s won close to 1.5 million dollars.
So, the class is there, but the question, and Asmussen knows this, is whether or not Kodiak Kowboy will be able to run on the Pro-Ride surface. His preferred style, to lay around 5 to 6 lengths off of the pace, might help him in the Sprint as there not only appears to be a lot of speed but the Pro-Ride often times favors closers.
If Kodiak Kowboy does take to the surface, then there is little doubt that he could win the race. He has won 3 races out of 6 at the Sprint distance of 6 furlongs and has finished 2nd once and 3rd two times. That means that out of 6 lifetime races at the distance, Kodiak Kowboy hasn’t finished off the board.
That in itself makes him a contender. Add in the fact that the Sprint will be his second race for Asmussen and all of a sudden horseplayers have a serious contender to beat the likely Sprint favorite, Zensational.
Perhaps, it will be yet another terrific call by Steve Asmussen who has made such terrific calls in the past, or it could be a disastrous failure. Asmussen saddled the 2008 Breeders’ Cup Classic favorite, Curlin, who finished 4th behind Tiago, Henrythenavigator and Raven’s Pass. Maybe, Asmussen’s fence riding was due to the fact that his star was crushed last year.
Kodiak Kowboy, however, is no Curlin. As brilliant as Curlin was in his career there is no doubt that he peaked in the 2008 Dubai World Cup. Kodiak Kowboy is a simpler racehorse. If he is feeling good that day, and Asmussen is terrific at making horses feel good, then he will run well. If he’s having an off day, then he won’t run well.
In Kodiak Kowboy’s past performances an interesting pattern emerges. He usually runs a terrific race after a sub par or two sub par efforts. The Vosburgh was a terrific race which means that Kodiak Kowboy shouldn’t run his best on Breeders’ Cup day.
But that doesn’t mean that Steve Asmussen and Vinery Stables and Fox Hill Farm, Kodiak Kowboy’s owners, shouldn’t take a shot in the Sprint. The purse is for 2 million dollars and Kodiak Kowboy just beat two of the best sprinters in the United States in Fabulous Strike and Munnings in the Vosburgh.
He’s obviously at the top of the game. Asmussen made the right choice.
After all, it’s only a horse race

Race-day: 11/6/2009
Race-time: 6:45 pm EST
If Zenyatta’s connections, the Mosses and trainer John Shirreffs, decide to bypass the this Friday’s Ladies’ Classic to run in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, then expect a long shot to possibly win the biggest race for distaffers in the United States.No Zenyatta means a wide open affair for a number of reasons. It would be a nice change to a race that the Breeders’ Cup is trying to bill as close to on par as the biggest race of the year, the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
This year, with the likelihood of Zenyatta not stepping into the gate, more than one fantastic female horse will try for some of the $2,000,000 purse in the Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic.
Let’s take a look at who could possibly win the race, sans Zenyatta.
Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic
** With odds in the BetUS online racebook
Santa Anita Park
1 1/8 miles over Pro-Ride
Rainbow View – - +600 current odds
This 3 year old daughter of Dynaformer just lost by 1 ¼ lengths to long shot Lahleeb on the turf in the Grade I E.P. Taylor stakes. She figures to improve mightily in this race as she should transfer for her turf form to the Pro-Ride for trainer John Gosden and is all class having beaten Heaven Sent two back in a Grade I at Leopardstown.
She showed the ability to stay close to pace in the E.P. Taylor and just didn’t fire but with some others doing her dirty work for her in this, Rainbow View, figures to put in a brilliant run and hopefully catch speedster Careless Jewel close to the wire.
Proviso – - +600 current odds
Proviso was unlucky to be taken down in her first try stateside, the Grade I Spinster Stakes. She appeared a clear cut winner until Mushka began a late rally in the lane. Proviso did drift out, although from my perspective she would have won the race if she had stayed straight anyhow, and was disqualified to second.
No matter, she has a big shot in the Ladies’ Classic for two reasons. First, she has shown the ability to run over an all weather surface. Second, she has shown the turn of foot that will probably be needed in this race. She deserves all of the attention she most likely will be getting on race day.
Careless Jewel – - +350 current odds
Careless Jewel has been doing her best impersonation of Rachel Alexandra lately. She hasn’t been headed in three of her last four races and has pretty much dominated her competition winning by 7 ¼ lengths in the Grade II Delaware Oaks and by 11 lengths in the Grade I Alabama.
She definitely deserves consideration in the Ladies’ Classic, but she won’t be lone speed in this and her class must be questioned even though she’s won graded races. Why? Because the competitions she’s been facing is very suspect. Front runners rarely excel over the Pro-Ride at long distances. At the current odds she might not be worth a wager.
Coca Beach – - +450 current odds
Sure, she was just trounced by Zenyatta in her last race, the Grade I Lady’s Secret, but Zenyatta doesn’t figure to show up in this. Horseplayers should expect Cocoa Beach to show more speed in this race than she has in her last couple, maybe only 3 lengths off of Careless Jewel and Lethal Heat. That would be a good thing for those backing her. She’s obviously classy, loves the track, and appears to be rounding back into form. She has a shot.
On Race Day
I’m going to use Rainbow View and Proviso in all of my Pick 3, and Pick 4 wagers. I will also use both Rainbow View and Proviso as keys in my exacta and trifecta bet.
At 6 to 1, Rainbow View is an excellent wager right now to win the Ladies’ Classic.

!Breeders’ Cup Week is here, and we are just 48 hours from Friday’s outstanding card. The 14 races covering the two days will offer up more than $25 million in purses and plenty of attractions for every bettor including a $3 million Ultra Pick 6 on Saturday.
That gives us some added incentive to pad our bankroll the next couple of days at Aqueduct, and today’s card certainly holds some promise.
The play of the day is a modest $16,000 claiming race with a purse of $25,000, a far cry from the dough that will be handed out later this week at Santa Anita.
However, a $50 or so exacta payoff on our play of the day will spend just as well as a $50 exacta on one of the Breeders’ Cup races.
Our Late Pick 3 has a chalky middle leg, as Solar Flare looks like he is going to be tough to beat in the Half High Stakes, but the other two legs in the sequence are wide open and we should be able to catch a couple of prices.
Today’s Play of the Day from Aqueduct:
AQU Race 4 Clm $16,000 (1:52 ET)
#6 Stepaside 9/2
#10 Bon Marie 4/1
#1 Midwatch 6/1
#3 Ballast 3/1
Analysis: #6 Stepaside had a tough post last out and after getting off last raced wide much of the trip and flattened out in the stretch to finish seventh against Alw-2 optional claimers at Laurel Park. The gelding makes his second start off a two-month break and drops into an easier spot here tagged for $16K and is making his first start for the Bush barn. He draws better here and he has ruin well on the turf in the past, landing in the exacta in eight of his first 13 starts on the lawn. Garcia takes the call and we should catch a fair price.
#10 Bon Marie has won three in a row and has not run a bad one since Tony D. took over this guy, who ran in a restricted $5K claimer last fall. The eight year old is an 11-time winner on turf and looks primed for a good effort here in his third start of his current corm cycle. The barn was 0 for 2 here last week but over the past 90 days in NY has hit at a 37% clip. Ramon sticks and this guy figures to be bet down from his 4/1 ML odds.

Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 7/2 or better.
EX: 6,10 / 6,8,10,13
TRI: 6,10 / 6,8,10,13 / 6,8,10,11,13
Today’s Pick 3 Play from Aqueduct:
Starting in Race 7: $1: 1,3,10 / 2,5,6,7 / 5,10 = $24
AQU Race 7 Clm $35,000 (3:16 ET)
#3 Rogue Victory, #1 Adagio / #1a Optimer, #10 Big Stick
#3 Rogue Victory drops into an easier spot here after checking in tenth and last in the Ky Cup Turf (G3). Two back he stumbled, dumping Prado in the process. Three back this guy was a solid second against Alw-3 optional claimers at Monmouth. The horse that beat him that day was Tastefull Smart, who came back to win and then run second in two starts since, both against Alw-3 optional claimers. The colt figures to bounce back here on the class drop.
#1 Adagio comes in riding a three race win streak for the Dutrow barn, last out for a $25K tag. His last three figs put him squarely in the mix here. His entrymate #1a Optimer has won four in a row, last out beating $25K foes as well. RRod rode this guy two a pair of those victories. He completes a strong entry but the price will probably drift downward off the 3/1 ML.
AQU Race 8 Half High S. (3:44 ET)
#5 Solar Flare, #2 Gold Trippi, #6 Timber Reserve, #7 More Than a Reason
#5 Solar Flare is making his first start since July where the five year old checked in third in the Salvatore Mile (G3). He regressed off a huge effort two back when he popped a 111 Beyer winning the Frisk Me Now at Monmouth Park back in May. He lands with the Tony D. barn that is 27% winners with newcomers to the barn. The works signal this guy looks ready to fire and the barn finds a good spot here in this overnight stake.
#2 Gold Trippi is coming off a runner up finish behind Biker Boy in a non conditioned optional claimer. The gelding owns a solid pace profile throughout with good late pace numbers and should get a good pace set up here. He also has won 2 of his 3 starts over the main track.
AQU Race 9 Md $25,000 (4:12 ET)
#10 Top Mast, #5 First Feat
#10 Top Mast drops in for a tag for the first time here for the Albertrani barn that is 3 for 11 (with a +ROI) with horses dropping from maiden special to maiden claiming. Two back the filly had a bum post and raced wide throughout. Last out she had trouble in a last place finish. She was in tight, bumped and had to steady leaving the chute, raced wide and faded in the stretch. She has a decent pedigree, by Mizzen Mast out of a Theatrical mare that has dropped two other foals to race, one turf winner. Encouraging seeing Ramon back on board today.
#5 First Feat drops in for a tag for her local debut for the Klesaris barn that is 30% winners with horses dropping from maiden special to maiden claiming. She raced evenly last out in a sixth place finish going a mile at Del Park. She is out of a Cozzene mare that has dropped two winners including turf winner Altered ($58K).
Price Plays From Aqueduct:
These are price plays to watch today. A small win-place wager is in order or if your pockets are deep enough, use these runners in your trifecta and Pick 3 and Pick 4 wagers. One or two of these could be the difference between a regular day at the track and hitting the IRS window with a signer.
R2: #2 Vamel 15/1
R2: #9 Bindle Stick 10/1
R3: #4 Viable 8/1
R5: #7 Press Only 10/1
R6: #4 Golden Caesar 15/1
R7: #3 Rogue Victory 8/1
R8: #6 Timber Reserve 8/1
R9: #1 Southern Princess / #1a As Promised 12/1
Good luck padding your bankroll today