Horse Pick of the Day: Hollywood Park – Race 5
Race-day: 11/28/2009
Race-time: 5:32 pm EST
Before Ventura and Diamondrella take to the turf track for the Grade I Matriarch on Saturday at Hollywood Park, two year olds go 1 mile on the turf in the Grade III Generous Stakes.
The Generous Stakes figures as a super competitive race where finding an overlay shouldn’t be an issues. Finding the right overlay, the overlay that could win, is the challenge.
Let’s take a look at Race 5 and Hollywood Park on Saturday.
Hollywood Park – Race 5
Grade III Generous Stakes
$100,000
For Two Year Olds
1 mile on turf
Who’s Up – - 7/2 fair online betting odds
Bridgetown is going to be a huge favorite in this race but that fella has no choice but to go for the lead breaking from the 1 hole while Who’s Up, who broke his maiden at a mile on the turf, figures to track Bridgetown before going after him at the top of the stretch. Who’s Up has been ridden by the fantastic Victor Espinoza in all three of his lifetime races, and figures to get the best trip out of all of the horses in this race.
Marcello – - 5/1 fair online betting odds
The Bob Baffert trained son of Johannesburg won an allowance race in his last race and is going first time on the turf. Usually, those wouldn’t be good signs that he deserves a wager, but the fact that he was bought for $200,000, is bred to enjoy the lawn, and showed the type of turn of foot that would make him very, very tough in this in that allowance victory.
Bridgetown – - 3/1 fair online betting odds
This two year old sired by Speightstown switches jockeys to Garrett Gomez after finishing 2nd by ¾ of a length in the BC Juvenile Turf in his last. He took the lead in that and actually looked to be the winner before getting run down by the terrific Pounced. Bridgetown has the ability to lead again in this race, but, again, faces a very tough opponent in Who’s Up. Bridgetown should go off the chalk, though, and is worth a wager at 3 to 1 or higher, although I doubt he goes off at those odds.
Wagering Strategy
Who’s Up is a very good horse and deserves a bet to win and place. I will also play an exacta and trifecta box with Bridgetown, Marcello and Who’s Up.

The best Pick 3 wager of the day starts in Hollywood’s Race 6 where maiden claimers will hit the track.
We’ll try to get a long shot in Race 6 at Hollywood Park because Ventura and Diamondrella run in the third leg of Saturday’s Pick 3 of the day.
Let’s take a look.
** All numbers are post positions
Race 6 – $25,000 Maiden Claimer (6:04 EST)
6 ½ furlongs on cushion track
Horses Used: 1-Afleet Magic, 2-Youthful Ambition, 4-Magic Dust, 6-Nanni The Teaser, 10-Broadway Promise
Analysis: Afleet Magic takes a drop in class and that may be all he needs. Plus, he’s a gelding now. Youthful Ambition changes barns to Vladimir Cerin and drops way down in class from the maiden special ranks. Magic Dust is a first time starter with some really nice works. Nanni The Teaser will be overlooked in the betting has improving numbers and trainer Eoin Harty is a master with these types of horses. Broadway Promise figures to go off as the chalk, has speed, and gets speed jock Martin Garcia.
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Race 6 – $38,000 n$y Allowance
6 furlongs on turf
Horses Used: 1-Woman Warrior, 2-Tamar, 3-Dotsy Jean, 5-Maroma, 7-Pink Diamond
Analysis: In this amazingly competitive race, decisions have to be made. One of them is to not use likely chalk Miss Silver Brook and instead throw in a few potential long shots. Woman Warrior has speed, gets the rail, and should get a terrific trip with Alex Solis on her back. Tamar was horrible in her last but she goes first time turf for trainer Mike Mitchell, is out of terrific sire Indian Charlie, and has a ton of speed. Dotsy Jean has won two races at this distance and on this turf course. She could close for the victory. Maroma is trained by Cristophe Clement and gets Rafael Bejarano to take the call. Pink Diamond is coming off of a maiden victory off of the turf. Usually, she’d be a throw-out but her number in her maiden win was absolutely fantastic and she is bred to be a champion.
Race 7 – Grade I Matriarch
1 mile on turf
Horses Used: 3-Diamondrella
Analysis: Yes, it’s true that Ventura is in this race and it would be a fantastic story if she were to win considering her former trainer, the venerable Bobby Frankel, passed away a couple of week’s ago, but Diamondrella is just too good at this distance and on this turf. Diamondrella has beaten Forever Together, the 2008 BC Filly and Mare Turf Champion, twice. She also had no chance in the BC Turf Sprint and probably would have given Goldikova a run for her money in the BC Mile. Diamondrella is 8-2-1 on the turf out of 16 lifetime races and is 2 for 2 at this distance, both on the turf. She’s out of Rock Of Gibraltar. So, her class is pretty much unquestioned. She beats Ventura in that one’s swan song on Saturday.$1 Pick 3 = 5 x 5 x 1 = 25 combinations
Total Cost = $25

Race-day: 11/28/2009

First-race: 2:14 pm EST
Aqueduct’s fall meet provides their most important day of racing on Saturday when the Grade I Cigar Mile, which will showcase Vineyard Haven and Kodiak Kowboy.
The Grade I Cigar Mile is the final leg in a four race Grand Slam Pick 4 that starts in Race 6 and ends in Race 9. Below is the Pick 4 ticket that I will most likely be playing, provided there are no scratches, this Saturday in the BetUS online racebook.
Race 6: Grade II Demoiselle Stakes
1 1/8 miles on dirt
Horses Used: 1/1A-In The Rough and Profiteroles, 4-Tizahit, 5-Protesting
Analysis: Both In The Rough and Profiteroles are next out maiden winners, but both have won going two turns already. Profiteroles figures to be super tough in this after the speed rating she garnered in her maiden victory. Tizahit failed in the Grade III Tempted Stakes but should find the competition much easier in this and Protesting was sired by A.P. Indy and comes out of the Shug McGaughey barn. Shug has trained some seriously good fillies in his time and figures to possibly have another one here.
Race 7: Grade II Remsen Stakes
1 1/8 miles on dirt
Horses Used: 5-Homeboy Kris, 6-Citrus Kid
Analysis: Buddy’s Saint figures to go off a super chalky in this but Homeboy Kris was awesome in his first race for trainer Richard Dutrow, knows how to rate, and figures to be even better in this. Citrus Kid goes to the barn of John Terranova who is 27% first time after the claim. He too should lie right behind Buddy’s Saint before taking him on at the top of the stretch.
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Race 8: Grade I Gazelle Stakes
1 1/8 miles on dirt
Horses Used: 2-Flashing, 3-Milwaukee Appeal, 4-Unrivaled Belle, 5-Bon Jovi Girl
Analysis: Flashing is 2 for 2 at Aqueduct and should be the favorite even though Stardom Bound is in this race. She should be very tough against this group. Milwaukee Appeal has finished 2nd in four straight races including the Grade I Alabama. Unrivaled Belle is 3 and 1 out of 4 straight races. Bon Jovi Girl finished second in a Grade I two races back before failing in a minor stakes race in her last. She can bounce back in this.
Race 9: Grade I Cigar Mile
1 mile on dirt
Horses Used: 1/1A-Pyro and Vineyard Haven, 4-Bribon
Analysis: Pyro is the closer and Vineyard Haven is the speed. Haven could steal this on the front end as he has faced much stronger early pressure in the past and has come out on top. Bribon failed in the Woodbine Mile, but is much better than he showed that day and figures to get the jump on the likely chalk in this, Kodiak Kowboy. Both are stone cold closers.
$1 Pick 4 = 3×2x4×2 = 48 combinations
Total Cost = $48

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Trainer Tim Ice isn’t known throughout racing circles the way that some of his peers are. That’s quite alright by him. After all, he just got his racing license about two years ago and Summer Bird is his only charge. It’s difficult to have a big head as a trainer when you only have one horse in your stable.
What a horse though. Summer Bird is easily one of the top horses going into the Breeders’ Cup Classic. There’s just no other way to describe the Travers and Belmont Stakes winner of 2009. Ice has done about as good of a job bringing Summer Bird up to the Breeders’ Cup Classic as any horse being brought up to a race in recent memory. The fact that his arch nemesis, the super filly Rachel Alexandra, won’t be running in the Classic means that Summer Bird will go off the favorite in the race and win as the favorite.
Let’s take a look at Summer Bird’s progression up to this point. It’s a terrific study in how thoroughbred trainers get their horses ready to peak at the exact right moment.
Summer Bird was born in April of 2006 in Kentucky. He was bred by the retired cardiologist Dr. Kalarikkal Jayaraman and his wife retired pathologist Dr. Vilasini Jayaraman. The good doctor and his good doctor wife bred Summer Bird at their farm in Ocala, Florida. Summer Bird is the son of Kentucky Derby winner Grindstone. His dam is the mare Hong Kong Squall, herself a daughter of Preakness winner Summer Squall.
Summer Bird’s bloodlines are exceptional. On his dad’s side are both Unbridled and the brilliant Northern Dancer. On his mother’s side are the great Alydar and the even greater Secretariat. His mother’s father, Alysheba, a son of Alydar, won the Kentucky Derby in the late 1980’s.
Good breeding obviously gave Tim Ice something to work with, but the trainer still had to get Summer Bird to where he is today, on the verge of winning the Breeders’ Cup Classic. How did he do that?
Summer Bird first showed signs of possible greatness when losing the Arkansas Derby. Summer Bird went 5 wide at the quarter pole and, once he switched leads, was gaining on both Old Fashioned and Papa Clem, but he just ran out of real estate. He ran past both of those after crossing the finish line. It was a huge, huge race for Summer Bird who showed that he had a ton of upside.
His next race, the Kentucky Derby, was actually a much better run than it looked at first. He finished 6th, losing to his half-brother Mine That Bird by 13 lengths, but while Mine That Bird took the inside on his way to Derby glory, Summer Bird went 7 wide around the final turn. It was a breathtaking move that came up short. On that day, the inside was playing perfectly while the outside was a mess. Mine That Bird got the better trip and thumped him, but Summer Bird’s performance was amazing. Even though the race was out of reach, Summer Bird kept running hard down the lane and passed enough of his foes to finish 6th.
After skipping the Preakness Stakes, Ice decided to run Summer Bird in the final leg of the Triple Crown, the Belmont Stakes. Trip horseplayers had caught on to Bird’s awesomeness. He was bet fairly well in the Belmont and ran to his odds. The running line will show that Summer Bird dominated Dunkirk and Mine That Bird by 2 ¾ lengths. Watching the Belmont again, most gamblers would have to agree that the margin of victory could have been much more. Summer Bird was near the back of the pack pretty much around the final turn and had to wait for an opening at the top of the stretch before unleashing his powerful late kick. It was an eye-opening performance.
Even in his loss to Rachel Alexandra in the Haskell Invitational, Summer Bird showed that he had turned into a horse to be reckoned with. Running on mud for the first time in his life, Summer Bird had a built in excuse for running a bad race, but he didn’t run a bad race. Jockey Kent Desormeaux, after surveying the field, put Summer Bird near the lead. It was a risky move as Summer Bird’s best running had been from off the pace. The move paid off as Summer Bird finished 2nd in the Haskell. There’s nothing wrong with getting dueled into submission by Rachel Alexandra and a replay of the race shows that Summer Bird actually accelerated in the lane to out run Munnings to the wire.
Summer Bird has run two more times since the Haskell Invitational. In both races, he was absolutely brilliant. In the Grade I Travers, the Mid-Summer Derby, Summer Bird beat Hold Me Back and Quality Road by 3 ½ lengths. He did so by stalking the pace instead of closing into it. In the Jockey Gold Cup, Ken Desormeaux put him near the lead again and once again, Summer Bird responded with a fantastic victory.
Summer Bird is ready to roll in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. He has beaten every horse he has faced in his last three races save for the unbeatable Rachel Alexandra. He has the ability to stalk, run near the lead, or from the back of the pack, and his breeding suggests that he will only get better the more he runs.
From race to race, Summer Bird has learned something new, excelled in one way or another. All of it is due to the steady handling from trainer Tim Ice. For having only one horse in his stable, Ice sure knows how train. I suppose if your lone horse is Summer Bird, you really don’t need to train anything else.

Wagering StrategyRace-day: 10/31/2009
Race-time: 3:35 pm EST
Keeneland’s featured race on Saturday is the Grade II Fayette Stakes. In that race, Parading and Blame figure to take most of the action and if the past performances mean anything, one of them will probably win that race.
It makes more sense for horse betting players to look elsewhere for an overlay. A potentially profitable overlay runs in Race 6 at Keeneland on Saturday.
Let’s take a look at Race 6 at Keeneland on Saturday.
Keeneland – Race 6
$56,000 Allowance
For Three Year Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won a Race Other Than Maiden, Claiming, Starter or State Bred on the Turf
1 mile turf
Mutadda – - 4/1 morning line odds
Trainer Tom Amoss hasn’t been having as good of a Keeneland meet as most gamblers expect of him, but Mutadda could help to turn that around. The son of Muktaddim should relish the stretch out to 1 mile on the turf. Amoss is very good with shippers and this one comes in from Mountaineer. He’s also 26% dirt to turf and 25% second time off of a layoff. There’s a lot to like with this horse.
Mr. Mischief – - 8/1 morning line odds
This son of Stormy Atlantic is coming off of a very nice win at 1 1/16th miles on Arlington Park’s turf course. Mr. Mischief is 4-3-1 out of 13 lifetime races over the turf and has enough speed to stay close in this race. He could end up as a seriously tough overlay to look past if his odds drift past 8 to 1. He’s got a good shot in this at a more than fair price.
Dubious Miss – - 6/5 morning line odds
The 5 year old gelding just finished second to Furthest Land in his last, the Grade II Kentucky Cup Classic. That race was on Polytrack. This race is on the turf. Trainer Paul McGee is only 9% with all weather to turf movers. Dubious Miss is the obvious class of this race and should win this going away but the odds aren’t justified.
I like Mutadda and will bet him to win and place. I will play an exacta and trifecta box with Mutadda, Mr. Mischief and Dubious Miss.

Horses worth watching, a list of runners compiled by handicapper/turf writer Greg Melikov that should improve significantly or do well next time out, won six times, ran second five times and finished third five times since Sept. 10. These thoroughbreds are worth considering when developing your horse betting strategy.

Go to BetUS for all your wagering!

Jackson Bend will attempt to become the sixth 2-year-old to sweep all three open Florida Stallion Stakes divisions in the 18th renewal at Calder Race Course on Saturday.
The son of Hear No Evil has won three in a row, including the Affirmed and Dr. Fager. In the Affirmed on Aug. 29, the colt defeated Mr. Green by 1 ½ lengths with Bim Bam another four lengths back in third.

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Race-time: 4:54 pm EST
Arlington Park continues to run some of the best races in the United States with a full card this Thursday.
Even though the races are run over Polytrack, horseplayers can find a nice overlay or two if the horses they choose to place wagers on like the surface. Often times, though, the Polytrack surface changes from day to day at Arlington Park. So, the traditional rules of gambling not only apply, but horse betting long shots more regularly at Arlington applies as well.
Let’s take a look at Race 9 at Arlington Park on Thursday.
Arlington Park – - Race 9
Optional Claiming $62,500
For Three Year Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won $12,600 Three Times in 2008/2009 Other Than Maiden, Claiming Starter or Restricted or Have Never Won Four Races or Claiming Price $62,500
6 ½ furlongs on Polytrack
Truelyonbroadway – - 9/2 morning line odds
Truelyonbroadway is 6 out of 7 in the money at Arlington Park on the Polytrack with 2 of those 6 being victories and the other 4 being second place finishes. Overall, the horse has 6 wins and 5 second place finishes out of 19 total races. This race sets up for the Wayne Catalano trained son of Yes Its True who should be able to sit behind the speed and make a run to wire.
Conchacer – - 10/1 morning line odds
This son of Congaree has a record of 3-2-1 out of 7 starts. His best race was his last, his first on Arlington Park’s Polytrack, and is a definite sign that he is coming into his own. That was a $50,000 stakes race. This is a $62,500 optional claimer. Conchacer could actually improve off of that start since he’s so lightly raced. If he does, then he is the overlay bet in this. Trainer Dale Bennett is winning at a 30% clip at the meet.
My Best Pal Red – - 3/1 morning line odds
My Best Pal Red, another Dale Bennett trainee, will go off as the chalk because the Polytrack has been favoring speed most of the meet. Horseplayers should be careful about playing this first time Bennett starter as he faces other speed in this, gets the rail which means he has to go all out early, and might not be up to snuff with some others in here as he’s coming out of a $35,000 claimer.
Wagering Strategy
I like Truelyonbroadway and will bet that one to win and place. I will key in an exacta over Conchacer and My Best Pal Red. I will reverse for less.
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The Virginia Derby is Colonial’s annual showcase event. Generally held in mid-July, the $750,000 Grade II event is broadcast live on CBS Sports and draws over 9,000 fans to the New Kent oval. Thoroughbred racing’s top three year old turf horses, along with the sport’s top jockeys and trainers compete 1¼ miles in the Virginia Derby. The $600,000 Grade II Colonial Turf Cup, a Derby prep race of sorts, is held four weeks prior.
Summer racing is generally held on a Friday thru Tuesday basis from mid-June thru early August. Races begin at 5 PM during the week, 6 PM on Fridays and 1 PM on weekends. A two-day “Racing to the Stars & Stripes” Festival is held over 4th of July weekend and features horse racing, a patriotic concert and fireworks.
Fall harness races begin in mid-September and continue through early November. Opening weekend festivities coincide with the New Kent County Fair, which also is held at Colonial Downs.
In mid-October, the country’s top trotters are invited to Colonial Downs to compete in the $100,000 Patriot Trot and several weeks later, top Virginia-bred pacers and trotters compete in the annual $350,000 (est.) “Day of Champions” event.
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Welcome to the 2009 Belmont Stakes.     We trust you enjoy the races and find something useful on our website.

Where is the Belmont Stakes?  Belmont Park
When is the Belmont Stakes?   June 6, 2009

Because of its distance and status as the race that can make or break a Triple Crown champion, the Belmont Stakes has been the venue for some of the most famous moments in American racing.

Quick Facts:

Main Course: 1 1/2 Miles
Last Turn to Finish on Main Track: 1,097 feet
Widener Turf Course: 1 5/16 Miles
Inner Turf Course: 1 3/16 Miles
Attendance Capacity: 85,000 – 90,000
Parking Capacity: 18,500 Cars
Trackside Dining: 2,300
Total Seating Capacity: 32,941

The Belmont Stakes, the final and most demanding leg of the Triple Crown, is named after August Belmont who had been a leading banker and racing man of the 19th century. He was also the first President of the Jockey Club in 1867. In 1869, August Belmont took first and second money with his own Fenian and Glenelg.

The first Belmont in the United States was not the famous stakes race or even the man for whom it is named. Rather, the first Belmont was a race horse that arrived in California in 1853 from his breeding grounds of Franklin, Ohio. The Belmont Stakes, however, are named after August Belmont, a financier who made quite a name and fortune for himself in New York politics and society. Obviously, Mr. Belmont was also quite involved in horse racing, and his imprint is even intertwined within the history of the Kentucky Derby.

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AP Racing WriterBy BETH HARRIS

LOS ANGELES (AP) -Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird is in need of yet another jockey.

Mike Smith, who rode the gelding to a second-place finish in Saturday’s Preakness Stakes, won’t ride him in the Belmont Stakes on June 6 because of a previous commitment.

Smith is already set to ride Madeo in the $300,000 Charles Whittingham Memorial Handicap at Hollywood Park that day.

The Hall of Fame rider is sticking with Madeo out of his loyalty to owners Jerry and Ann Moss and trainer John Shirreffs. Together, they won the 2005 Kentucky Derby on Giacomo, who like Mine That Bird, was a 50-1 long shot.

Horse racing is among the most widely attended U.S. spectator sports. It is also a major professional sport in Canada, Great Britain, Ireland, Western Europe, Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, and South America. The most popular form of the sport is the racing of mounted thoroughbred horses over flat courses at distances from three-quarters of a mile to two miles.

Horse racing’’s beginnings can be traced back to the 12th century, when English knights returned home from the Crusades with Arab horses. Over the next 400 years, breeding between imported Arab stallions and English mares produced horses that combined speed and endurance.

Horse racing became a professional sport as early as 1702 to 1714. Racecourses sprang up all over England and offered large purses to attract the best horses. The British settlers
brought horses and horse racing to America, with the first American racetrack built in Long Island in 1665. The development of organized racing did not arrive to America until after the Civil War. In 1894, the American Jockey Club was formed to govern the sport.

The introduction of pari-mutuel betting for the Kentucky Derby signaled a renaissance for the sport after stumbling badly in the early 1900s. At the end of World War I, prosperity brought spectators flocking to racetracks. The sport prospered until World War II, declined in during the 1950s and 1960s, enjoyed a resurgence in the 1970s and declined in the late 1980s. It is currently enjoying another renaissance, thanks to the popularity of horses like War Emblem, Funny Cide, and the legendary Seabiscuit.

Today, thoroughbred tracks exist in about half the states in the United States.  Public interest in the sport focuses primarily on major thoroughbred races such as the Triple Crown (Kentucky Derby, Preakness, Belmont Stakes) and the Breeder’s Cup.

Horse Betting Odds

Odds are an approximation of how much a horse will pay to win a race. You will notice that as betting on a race progresses closer to post time, the odds will change. Why is that you ask? The monies that are wagered in a race are counted up and put into Pools.

What is a Pool? A Pool is where the total amount of money that is wagered on a specific type of bet is held to be redistributed to patrons that have correctly selected the outcome of the specific wager they have placed. Out of these pools certain percentages are subtracted. Why is that you ask? The reason being, a percentage of all money wagered go to governments, racetracks, and Horseman. The Government receives a percentage (for tax purposes) for allowing conduct racing in a certain jurisdiction. The Racetracks receive a percentage for promotions, maintaining the racetrack, and paying employees. The horsemen receive a percentage that makes the Racetracks able to offer purse money to the owners and trainers for racing horses. If there were no money, there would be no races. After the percentages are removed, the remaining money is paid out. This is where we get our payoffs for winning tickets.

The odds are usually of the form x/y (e.g. 5/1, 9/5). Dividing x by y gives a ratio to 1. The smallest ratio or the largest amount of money on a number represents the favorite.

Winning odds of 2/1 will pay $6.00 for a $2 bet, while 5/1 will pay $12.00 for a $2 bet. Payout is calculated by (odds ratio to 1) x bet amount + bet amount.

Some tracks allow different minimum amounts on each bet type; generally, $1 bets tends to be the minimum on all bets. The odds are computed based on the sales on the bet less a government and handling tax. These deductions vary and are usually controlled by a regulatory body. Deductions may vary at the same track if there are simulcast races. In addition some tracks tax payouts in excess of a specified limit; generally, this limit is 600/1

The story of Takeover Target reads like a fairy tale. Foaled in the year 1999, Takeover Target was bought by a taxi driver named Joe Janiak, who managed to scrape together $AUD1250, for the unsound Takeover Target, who was also unraced at that stage. But Janiak was prepared to take a chance on him, and in return, the gelding has given his best every time he has stepped out onto the course, leading to him being referred to as the best Australian horse that has ever lived. And on Saturday, 18 April 2009, he proved that he was the best, once again.

From HorseRacing.com – http://www.horseracing.com