Favorites generally win one-third of the time at American racetracks. During the current Oak Tree meeting, however, top choices scored 40 percent through Oct. 29.
The Breeders’ Cup, dating back to the inaugural event in 1984, has produced winning favorites 34 ½ percent in 196 races.
The biggest upset in BC history came in the ’93 Classic when European import Arcangues triumphed at a whopping 133-1.
Eight of 14 winners last year at Santa Anita returned double-digit payoffs. The highest return was compliments of Desert Code who paid $75 on the front end, producing a $29,663.30 superfecta.
In the BC Juvenile Fillies Turf, two horses that won at the 1 1/16 miles are capable of springing an upset: Smart Seattle, 8-1, and Lisa’s Kitten, 12-1.
In the Filly and Mare Sprint, Evita Argentina appears the best of three 20-1 shots with a chance off her 3 for 6 record on synthetic surfaces despite the presence of likely odds-on choice Ventura. A double-digit place payoff wouldn’t be bad either.
The 8-1 Bridgetown boasts the best speed figure at the mile in the Juvenile Turf winning a graded stakes race at Woodbine.
With all the front-running speed in the Sprint at six furlongs, Capt. Candyman Can at 15-1 could surprise in a wide-open race.
Pulsion, 20-1, finished second to likely favorite Looking At Lucky at 1 1/16 miles in a recent prep at Santa Anita for the Juvenile. He has steadily improved in four starts.
Karelian at 20-1 looks interesting in the Mile. Four of his seven victories have been at a mile on the grass and he is 7 of 15 in career turf outings. Whatsthescript, 15-1, broke from post 11 last year and closed big time from 11th to third behind defending champ Goldikova. He’s 2-0-2 of 5 at Oak Tree, 4-0-2 on the grass lifetime.
Neko Bay, 20-1, loves Santa Anita – he’s 4-2-0 for 6. Trainer John Sherriffs, who also sends out unbeaten Zenyatta against the boys in the Classic, is 30 percent winners in 99 graded stakes this year.
If you’re looking for upsets in the Classic, consider a couple of 12-1 shots that rally from off the pace. Gio Ponti is the likely Eclipse turf champ off four Grade 1 victories on grass, including two a 1 ¼ miles. Richard’s Kid is 1-1-1 in his last 3 on California synthetic courses. Trainer Bob Baffert is 26 percent winners from 231 entries in graded stakes races for ’08.

Aidan O’Brien is no stranger to big races. Backed by the powerful Coolmore Stud operation out of the Republic of Ireland, O’Brien has won his share of big races. Coolmore Stud is the largest breeding operation of thoroughbred racehorses in the world. Through Coolmore, O’Brien obtains his horses and through Ballydoyle Stables, he runs his horses.
Therefore, to see O’Brien back in the United States with plenty of horses to make a run in the Breeders’ Cup is nothing new. This year, though, could be different because this year the man who saddled Henrythenavigator to a second place finish in the 2008 Breeders’ Cup Classic has, by his own admission, the best horse he has ever trained running in the 2009 Classic, Rip Van Winkle.
American racing fans must be forgiven if they only believe that Rip Van Winkle is a story by Washington Irving and not also a racehorse. After all, O’Brien’s charge was thumped by arguably one of the greatest racehorses of all time, Sea The Stars, thoroughly in 2009.
Sea The Stars finished ahead of Rip Van Winkle in the Grade I Two Thousand Guineas, the Grade I Epsom Derby, and the Grade I Coral Eclipse, but Sea The Stars, by all accounts, won’t enter the gate in the 2009 Breeders’ Cup Classic. What that means is that O’Brien’s horse could possibly be the favorite to win the Classic. Right now, Rip Van Winkle is a +200 co-favorite along with the super filly Zenyatta in the online racebook to take home the Classic trophy.
Favoritism makes sense as Rip Van Winkle has won his last two races, both grade ones, in sterling fashion. He took down the Grade I Sussex by 2 ½ lengths over the well-regarded Paco Boy and then he won the Grade I Queen Elizabeth Stakes over Zacinto and fellow Breeders’ Cup contender, Delegator. In both races Rip Van Winkle looked absolutely terrific, but there are flaws with those who believe that Rip Van Winkle is worth the low odds to win the Classic.
Aidan O’Brien is a master trainer, that won’t be an issue. Rip Van Winkle no doubt will be on his toes, ready to enter the gate, ready to run, able to get in perfect position and seemingly ready to take homer the winner’s purse of the mullah on Nov. 7 th. Bettors who put money O’Brien’s charge, however, should wait out the end of the race before walking to the window to cash their tickets.
The reason is simple; Henrythenavigator and Raven’s Pass were running against a much softer group of horses in the 2008 BC Classic. Curlin, the top American runner, hadn’t done a whole lot going into the race. It was also obvious that Curlin didn’t care for the Pro-Ride surface. Therefore, the top American, and the favorite in the race was racing over a surface he detested, on the downturn of his career. No wonder he finished 4 th.
Curlin, unfortunately for American racing fans, was the only horse capable of challenging Raven’s Pass and Henrythenavigator on class in the 2008 BC Classic. Tiago, Go Between, Colonel John, Smooth Air, Fairbanks, Student Council and Casino Drive were either horses that had proven to be no better than Grade III or Grade II status or hadn’t really proven themselves at either the 1 ¼ mile distance or against top notch competition.
That’s not the case with this year’s field. Rip Van Winkle may be a great horse, nobody is going to doubt that, but Zenyatta, who figures to run in the Classic, is a great horse as well. Summer Bird, the Belmont Stakes, Travers and Jockey Gold Cup winner is coming into the race as well as any horse could.
Then, there’s the turf star Gio Ponti who will bypass the Breeders’ Cup Turf for the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Gio Ponti isn’t nearly as well regarded as Rip Van Winkle, but he does have success over the Pro-Ride surface and has been as good of a racehorse in the United States as any outside of Rachel Alexandra in 2009.
Finally, there’s the other European, Twice Over, who is out of Observatory and whose grandfather is Distant View. Twice Over is himself a Grade I winner over the turf and comes out of the Juddmonte Farms racing outfit which, like Ballydoyle, has won numerous Grade I races throughout the world.
This is a very, very good field for the BC Classic. It’s better than many horseplayers might think. Taking such short odds on a horse that hasn’t even won a million bucks yet to beat the likes of Zenyatta, Summer Bird, Gio Ponti and Twice Over makes absolutely no sense.
Pass on betting Rip Van Winkle in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. The odds won’t justify a wager.

Trainer Steve Asmussen has confirmed that his Grade I Vosburgh winning star, Kodiak Kowboy, will run in the 2 million Breeders’ Cup Sprint on November 7th.
Asmussen was debating on whether to run Kodiak Kowboy in the Sprint or save him for a race later in November or December. Asmussen confirmed on Saturday, October 24th, that Kodiak Kowboy would try the Sprint. The debate had more to do with the fact that the 2009 Breeders’ Cup is being held at Santa Anita Park over the Pro-Ride surface then whether or not Kodiak Kowboy could handle the best thoroughbred speedsters in the world.
Kodiak Kowboy has only 1 victory out of 3 tries over an all weather surface and the victory was when he was a two year old at Woodbine. Woodbine has a Polytrack surface which is different than the Pro-Ride, but a good race over any synthetic surface is better than no races at all over the plastic. Asmussen did admit that the connections of Kodiak Kowboy were “definitely worried that the race is being run over the Pro-Ride”.
Asmussen is taking a shot with Kodiak Kowboy in the Sprint as it will be only the second time that the trainer has saddled the horse. Asmussen received Kodiak Kowboy from the Larry Jones’ barn shortly before the Vosburgh. The decision to run Kodiak Kowboy in the Sprint is similar to Asmussen’s decision to run Rachel Alexandra in the Preakness Stakes shortly after acquiring the filly for owner Jess Jackson.
The gamble paid off when Rachel Alexandra won the Preakness Stakes, but will it pay off in the case of Kodiak Kowboy?
It just might. There will be few horses as classy in the Sprint as the son of Posse who possesses the ability to either run close to the pace or close from behind. Kodiak Kowboy has a record of 10-4-3 out of 22 lifetime races. He has won two Grade I races, the Carter Handicap and the Vosburgh, and finished second in another Grade I race, the Forego. He has beaten some very good horses such as Fabulous Strike, Munnings and Ready’s Echo. He’s won close to 1.5 million dollars.
So, the class is there, but the question, and Asmussen knows this, is whether or not Kodiak Kowboy will be able to run on the Pro-Ride surface. His preferred style, to lay around 5 to 6 lengths off of the pace, might help him in the Sprint as there not only appears to be a lot of speed but the Pro-Ride often times favors closers.
If Kodiak Kowboy does take to the surface, then there is little doubt that he could win the race. He has won 3 races out of 6 at the Sprint distance of 6 furlongs and has finished 2nd once and 3rd two times. That means that out of 6 lifetime races at the distance, Kodiak Kowboy hasn’t finished off the board.
That in itself makes him a contender. Add in the fact that the Sprint will be his second race for Asmussen and all of a sudden horseplayers have a serious contender to beat the likely Sprint favorite, Zensational.
Perhaps, it will be yet another terrific call by Steve Asmussen who has made such terrific calls in the past, or it could be a disastrous failure. Asmussen saddled the 2008 Breeders’ Cup Classic favorite, Curlin, who finished 4th behind Tiago, Henrythenavigator and Raven’s Pass. Maybe, Asmussen’s fence riding was due to the fact that his star was crushed last year.
Kodiak Kowboy, however, is no Curlin. As brilliant as Curlin was in his career there is no doubt that he peaked in the 2008 Dubai World Cup. Kodiak Kowboy is a simpler racehorse. If he is feeling good that day, and Asmussen is terrific at making horses feel good, then he will run well. If he’s having an off day, then he won’t run well.
In Kodiak Kowboy’s past performances an interesting pattern emerges. He usually runs a terrific race after a sub par or two sub par efforts. The Vosburgh was a terrific race which means that Kodiak Kowboy shouldn’t run his best on Breeders’ Cup day.
But that doesn’t mean that Steve Asmussen and Vinery Stables and Fox Hill Farm, Kodiak Kowboy’s owners, shouldn’t take a shot in the Sprint. The purse is for 2 million dollars and Kodiak Kowboy just beat two of the best sprinters in the United States in Fabulous Strike and Munnings in the Vosburgh.
He’s obviously at the top of the game. Asmussen made the right choice.
After all, it’s only a horse race

Trainer Tim Ice isn’t known throughout racing circles the way that some of his peers are. That’s quite alright by him. After all, he just got his racing license about two years ago and Summer Bird is his only charge. It’s difficult to have a big head as a trainer when you only have one horse in your stable.
What a horse though. Summer Bird is easily one of the top horses going into the Breeders’ Cup Classic. There’s just no other way to describe the Travers and Belmont Stakes winner of 2009. Ice has done about as good of a job bringing Summer Bird up to the Breeders’ Cup Classic as any horse being brought up to a race in recent memory. The fact that his arch nemesis, the super filly Rachel Alexandra, won’t be running in the Classic means that Summer Bird will go off the favorite in the race and win as the favorite.
Let’s take a look at Summer Bird’s progression up to this point. It’s a terrific study in how thoroughbred trainers get their horses ready to peak at the exact right moment.
Summer Bird was born in April of 2006 in Kentucky. He was bred by the retired cardiologist Dr. Kalarikkal Jayaraman and his wife retired pathologist Dr. Vilasini Jayaraman. The good doctor and his good doctor wife bred Summer Bird at their farm in Ocala, Florida. Summer Bird is the son of Kentucky Derby winner Grindstone. His dam is the mare Hong Kong Squall, herself a daughter of Preakness winner Summer Squall.
Summer Bird’s bloodlines are exceptional. On his dad’s side are both Unbridled and the brilliant Northern Dancer. On his mother’s side are the great Alydar and the even greater Secretariat. His mother’s father, Alysheba, a son of Alydar, won the Kentucky Derby in the late 1980’s.
Good breeding obviously gave Tim Ice something to work with, but the trainer still had to get Summer Bird to where he is today, on the verge of winning the Breeders’ Cup Classic. How did he do that?
Summer Bird first showed signs of possible greatness when losing the Arkansas Derby. Summer Bird went 5 wide at the quarter pole and, once he switched leads, was gaining on both Old Fashioned and Papa Clem, but he just ran out of real estate. He ran past both of those after crossing the finish line. It was a huge, huge race for Summer Bird who showed that he had a ton of upside.
His next race, the Kentucky Derby, was actually a much better run than it looked at first. He finished 6th, losing to his half-brother Mine That Bird by 13 lengths, but while Mine That Bird took the inside on his way to Derby glory, Summer Bird went 7 wide around the final turn. It was a breathtaking move that came up short. On that day, the inside was playing perfectly while the outside was a mess. Mine That Bird got the better trip and thumped him, but Summer Bird’s performance was amazing. Even though the race was out of reach, Summer Bird kept running hard down the lane and passed enough of his foes to finish 6th.
After skipping the Preakness Stakes, Ice decided to run Summer Bird in the final leg of the Triple Crown, the Belmont Stakes. Trip horseplayers had caught on to Bird’s awesomeness. He was bet fairly well in the Belmont and ran to his odds. The running line will show that Summer Bird dominated Dunkirk and Mine That Bird by 2 ¾ lengths. Watching the Belmont again, most gamblers would have to agree that the margin of victory could have been much more. Summer Bird was near the back of the pack pretty much around the final turn and had to wait for an opening at the top of the stretch before unleashing his powerful late kick. It was an eye-opening performance.
Even in his loss to Rachel Alexandra in the Haskell Invitational, Summer Bird showed that he had turned into a horse to be reckoned with. Running on mud for the first time in his life, Summer Bird had a built in excuse for running a bad race, but he didn’t run a bad race. Jockey Kent Desormeaux, after surveying the field, put Summer Bird near the lead. It was a risky move as Summer Bird’s best running had been from off the pace. The move paid off as Summer Bird finished 2nd in the Haskell. There’s nothing wrong with getting dueled into submission by Rachel Alexandra and a replay of the race shows that Summer Bird actually accelerated in the lane to out run Munnings to the wire.
Summer Bird has run two more times since the Haskell Invitational. In both races, he was absolutely brilliant. In the Grade I Travers, the Mid-Summer Derby, Summer Bird beat Hold Me Back and Quality Road by 3 ½ lengths. He did so by stalking the pace instead of closing into it. In the Jockey Gold Cup, Ken Desormeaux put him near the lead again and once again, Summer Bird responded with a fantastic victory.
Summer Bird is ready to roll in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. He has beaten every horse he has faced in his last three races save for the unbeatable Rachel Alexandra. He has the ability to stalk, run near the lead, or from the back of the pack, and his breeding suggests that he will only get better the more he runs.
From race to race, Summer Bird has learned something new, excelled in one way or another. All of it is due to the steady handling from trainer Tim Ice. For having only one horse in his stable, Ice sure knows how train. I suppose if your lone horse is Summer Bird, you really don’t need to train anything else.

Race-times: Bold Ruler at 1:32 pm EST and Fayette Stakes at 5:05 pm EST
The Breeders’ Cup is just around the corner. Right now, the best in the world are beginning to descend upon Santa Anita Park for the greatest two days of horse racing action in 2009.
Aqueduct and Keeneland won’t ever be Breeders’ Cup sites, but they still provide great racing on the weekends. Both tracks also happen to have the two most intriguing stakes races of Saturday on their cards.
Let’s take a look at the Grade III Bold Ruler Handicap at Aqueduct on Saturday and the Grade II Fayette Stakes at Keeneland on Saturday.
Aqueduct – Race 4
Grade III Bold Ruler Handicap
$150,000
For Three Year Olds and Upward
7 furlongs on dirt
There isn’t a whole lot of speed in this race which is one of the reasons Lucky Island could turn around his recent terrible form. After winning 4 races in a row, Lucky Island hasn’t hit the board in his last 5. His last race was horrendous, but he figures to turn things around in this. Lucky Island likes Aqueduct and if Garcia decides to go to the front with him, then he could wire this field.
Cherokee Country has busted two impressive speed ratings in a row. Both of those races were at Philadelphia Park but he doesn’t face that much better competition in this and he could be the horse to beat. Bettors should expect his odds to come down from that 4 to 1 morning line. Le Grand Cru can be an exceptionally fast horse at times and a slow horse at other times. Cru is coming off of a nice pressing victory and deserves a shot in this.
1. Lucky Island
2. Cherokee Country
3. Le Grand Cru
Keeneland – Race 9
Grade II Fayette Stakes
$150,000
For Three Year Olds and Upward
1 1/8 miles on Polytrack
National Pride hasn’t been that great in his last two starts and he does try the Polytrack for the first time in his career, but trainer Kieran McLaughlin has been awesome at Keeneland winning with 43% of his starters and National Pride has some back class. He’s worth a shot at the 12 to 1 morning line odds. Blame is one heck of a racehorse. He just lost to Regal Ransom, another good horse, in the Grade II Super Derby but he didn’t lose by much. He’s the class of this field and could easily win it with some luck. Parading returns to Keeneland after failing out at Southern California. He’s a good horse, but the odds will be short and three losses in a row may have taken away his competitive edge.
1. National Pride
2. Blame
3. Parading

Australia only has three synthetic racecourses, of which Geeling ThoroughTrack is one. And when a synthetic track begins to cause problems, it affects everyone in the horse racing community. Geelong Racing Club is understandably under tremendous stress after the announcement from Victoria Racing Ltd, that the Geelong track is to be closed for repairs and maintenance. With losses estimated at approximately $15 000 per race meeting that is canceled, the Geelong Racing Club is in for a rough time.

From HorseRacing.com – http://www.horseracing.com